Jeremy Rockliff leads a Liberal minority government with 14 of 35 seats. One Nation didn't stand at the 2025 election, yet now polls close to Labor. Here is the average of the latest polls.
State politics from ABC Tasmania, Pulse Tasmania and the Tasmanian Times. Each links to the original story.
Every published state poll since the July 2025 election, and a plain average of the latest one from each pollster.
This isn't analysis. It brings publicly available polls together in one place so they're easier to read. For analysis of Tasmanian polling, read Kevin Bonham's blog, and if you find it useful, support his work with a donation (there's a PayPal button in the blog's sidebar).
Lines show the average as it stood after each poll. Faint dots are individual polls, hollow if commissioned. Squares mark the July 2025 result.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Lib | Lab | Grn | ON | Ind | Other | Rockliff / Willie | Sample | Method |
|---|
Figures as each pollster published them, with undecided voters excluded. uComms asked undecided voters which way they leaned, so its figures are Kevin Bonham's conversion. "Other" includes SFF and Nationals. One Nation was first offered as an option in February 2026.
Take the most recent poll from each pollster whose fieldwork ended in the last 90 days, and average their published figures. Each pollster counts once. There's no weighting for sample size, method or past accuracy, and no adjustment of any kind. Commissioned polls stay out unless you tick the box above.
The page shows no seat numbers. Turning Hare-Clark primary votes into seats depends on quotas, candidate draw and preference flows that polls don't measure. For seat estimates and analysis of each poll, see Kevin Bonham's blog.
Are they announcing, criticising or advocating, and on which issues? Based on media releases only. Every release the Liberal government, Labor and the Greens published on their own websites in the 90 days to the newest release, 14 July to 12 October: 611 in all, each read in full and coded by Claude (AI) by issue and by what it's trying to do.
Share of each party's media releases on each of 10 issues. Tap an issue to see the headlines behind it.
Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, read all 611 releases in full. Each one gets a main issue, a second issue where there's a clear one, and one type:
The issue chart counts main issues. Open an issue to see how many more releases have it as their second issue. in the tone figures but not the issue chart.
Keeping it current. New releases are added twice a day and coded the same way. Earlier releases aren't re-coded, and the figures always cover the 90 days to the newest release.
Limits. One AI coder made every call, so borderline cases are judgement. The Liberals' figures are government releases from the Premier's website, so they aren't like-for-like with the opposition parties' releases. Social media, ads, speeches and parliament aren't included.
| Issue | What's in it |
|---|
Statewide first preferences at the last five state elections, with today's polling average as the last point.
Solid points are election results. The dashed line runs to today's polling average, a survey reading and not a result.
The Liberals and Labor combined
Dotted line marks 50%.
| Election | Result | Lib | Lab | Grn | Ind | Others | Largest other | Seats Lib / Lab / Grn / other |
|---|
House of Assembly first preferences as counted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission. The house had 25 seats until it went back to 35 at the 2024 election.
What each party received, and who the disclosed donors are. All figures come from the Australian Electoral Commission and the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Each party's Tasmanian branch. Source: AEC annual returns, published February 2026. Returns for 2025-26 are due to be published in February 2027.
Tasmania began requiring parties to disclose donations over $1,000 on 1 July 2025, so this is newer, more detailed data than the 2024-25 returns. It covers 1 July 2025 to 12 October 2026.
Reportable donations (gifts totalling more than $1,000 from one donor) to each party or its candidates. Source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Search every disclosure yourself on the TEC disclosures portal.
Why individual donors aren't named here. Most individual donors are private citizens, some giving as little as $1,000. Their names are already on the public record, but repeating them on a page built to be shared gives them more exposure than the register does. Every individual donation, with the donor's name, is on the TEC disclosures portal.
Union: trade unions and union peak bodies. Business and industry: companies, family companies and trusts, and industry associations such as the Pharmacy Guild or the Hotels Association. Individual: people giving in their own name, including MPs donating to their own party. Other party branches: money from Labor's national office and Victorian branch.
Not counted as donations: a $500,000 reportable loan to the Liberals from the Trustee for Gatenby Investment Fund in August 2025, and transfers from a party to its own candidates. Where the same donation appears in both the old and new TEC registers it is counted once. Individual donors are not named here, but every disclosure is public on the TEC website.
In the 2024-25 panel, "Party and associated entities" means money from other branches of the same party and from entities the AEC lists as associated with it, Unions that the AEC lists as associated entities of Labor are counted as unions. "Not itemised" is the rest of each party's total receipts, from sources under the $16,900 threshold, plus membership, fundraising and public funding.
The two panels cover different periods and use different thresholds, so their figures can't be added or compared directly.
The 52nd Parliament, elected July 2025. No party has a majority, which takes 18 of the 35 House of Assembly seats.
Five electorates (Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin, Lyons) elect seven members each by Hare-Clark. Helen Burnet left the Greens to sit as an independent in January 2026. The next election is due by 2029. The House sits again on Tuesday 27 October.
The upper house has 15 members, one for each division, elected for six-year terms. A few seats come up each May, so the whole house is never elected at once. Most members are independents, so every bill needs crossbench votes to pass. The latest elections, in May 2026, left the balance unchanged.
Both chambers are drawn as a horseshoe, with government members on the left, Labor on the right and the crossbench at the end. It shows each party's numbers, not the exact seating plan.
The events that shaped this parliament, each dated and linked to its source.
Tasmanian politics, in long form.
Politics here is small enough that one email, petition or submission gets read.
The pages this tracker checks for changes, what it looks for on each, and when each last changed.
| Page | What we check | Latest | Last changed | Last checked |
|---|
Checked twice a day, morning and evening Hobart time. "New" marks anything that changed in the last three days.